Oct 30, 2012

Background information on this blog

On this blog, I will write about stock market cycles and planetary events. I mainly follow the European indexes (DAX, CAC 40 and FTSE) and US indexes (S&P500, Nasdaq). I found that cycle tops/bottoms can be predicted with planetary events. The main cycle I use, is the cycle with an average duration of 17 weeks (minimum 12 and maximum 25 weeks, often called primary cycle or week cycle). There are other cycles that should be taken into account, but the primary cycle is the main focus of this blog.

The goal is to follow the cycles and try to predict the top and bottom (cycle end), defining various scenarios. I use a list with certain planetary events (aspects, planets changing sign, planets going retrograde/direct) and their probability of a cycle top or bottom. I found these in various sources. Tip: in “The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Vol III” by Raymond Merriman you find in the back of the book an extensive list of aspects and the probability that a bottom/top of a primary cycle will occur. The highest probability is an aspect with a value of 91% that a cycle top/bottom will occur. However, I use more planetary events than the ones used in this book.

For each year, I make an Excel sheet and list the following astrological events:
  • Aspects between planets. (I only list aspects that have proven to correlate with reversals.) 
  • Planets going retrograde/direct 
  • Planet transitions 
  • Are there multiple planets in the same sign? 
  • Moon events: full moon, new moon, min/max declination, apogee, perigee, moon eclipse, sun eclipse. 
  • Bradley turning dates (these dates are based on astrology).
I also have separate list of all the events from Merriman’s book and the probability of a cycle reversal. See the following snapshots:

    I try to trade the cycle bottom and/or top and sometimes also the midcycle low. Please note that this means I am not a day trader but hold my positions for several weeks and try to catch big moves. Only one planetary event is not enough for a cycle reversal. There always should be several events within a short timeframe, and preferably a trispect. When I find a cluster of planetary events, this could be an indication of a possible turning point.

    The problem with cycles is that you never know how long a reversal will last. Sometimes it is several days, sometimes it is several weeks. Another disadvantage is that you might have more clusters within a short period when a cycle top/bottom should be expected. So you should first wait for confirmation. I found out that bottoms are easier to predict than tops. Bottoms are often clearly indicated by clusters of moon events.

     It took me a lot of study but I found the subject very interesting. I read a lot of books on astrology and stock markets and found a lot of them useless or not suited for my trading style. I have a full time job and do not daytrade, I prefer moves that last several weeks. The books I did find useful are listed below:

    Recommended reading (ordered from basic to advanced):
    • The cycle trading pattern manual: http://www.walterbressert.com/pdf/Manual.PDF 
    • Merriman on Market Cycles, The Basics - Raymond Merriman 
    • Astro Cycles - Larry Pesavento (a must read) 
    • Stock Market Timing Volume 3, Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles - Raymond Merriman 
    • The key to speculation on the New York Stock Exchange - Jack Gillen 
    • Time and Money - Robert Gover 
    • And of course good ephemeris. I use both Raphael’s Ephemeris and the American Ephemeris as none of them includes all data I need. 

    Software: Aspectarian: http://www.astrowin.org/se_aspectarian.php

    Finally I would like to quote Larry Pesavento wrote in his book Astro Cycles: trading with astrology gives you an edge, but it is not the holy grail. I completely agree with him.

    Note: I am not a professional astrologer or market analyst. I am a linguist with interest in the stock markets and astronomy.

    1 comment:

    1. Dear MZ, very inspiratianol to read your work, it would be great to come in contact with you, you may sent an email to tradingecology@gmail.com ? Greetings from the Netherlands as well.